README.md

Finn Cereal Models

Model for net blotch (Pyrenophora teres), tan spot (pyrenophora triciti-repentis), and stagonospora blotch (s. nodorum)

This is a mechanistic model that can be used for three fungal diseases in cereals: the barley net blotch caused by Pyrenophora teres, the wheat tan spot caused by Pyrenophora triciti-repentis, and the wheat stagonospora blotch caused by S. nodorum.

All three diseases included in the model can be modeled similarly, but only one disease, shown in the model title, is being modeled at a time.

The model is based on explicitly modeling the progress of diseases separately on each location. The principal entities and phenomena used in the model are the disease, the field, the cultivar, and the weather. The output of the model provides the farmer with information when the situation on their field has been beneficial for disease development and thus there is an elevated risk of a disease outbreak. Modeling each disease is based on the same, mechanistic modeling approach. However, as the optimal circumstances for the progress of each disease are different, each disease needs to be modelled individually.

The model gives two types of results: the daily risk and the accumulated risk. Of these the accumulated risk value is the one to keep an eye on. The accumulated risk tells how likely it is that the net blotch is going to infect the crop; the higher the accumulated risk value the higher the likehood of infection.

An accumulated risk value of 50 or more is a cause for concern.

An accumulated risk value of 100 or more is a cause for heightened concern.

To set up the model, the following information is required:

• A weather data source, such as a weather station, integrated to the VIPS system
• The sowing date for the field in question
• The preceding crop on the field
• The tillage method used on the field
• The susceptibility of the crop on the field

As can be seen from the list, the model is field-specific, and therefore needs to be set up separately for each field where the disease situation is being monitored.

References and attributions

This model is based on and uses to a large extent code that was originally written in the context of research work published in

• Markus Stocker, Jussi Nikander, Hanna Huitu, Marja Jalli, Markku Koistinen, Mauno Rönkkö, and Mikko Kolehmainen (2016). Representing Situational Knowledge for Disease Outbreaks in Agriculture. Journal of Agricultural Informatics, 7(2):29-39. https://doi.org/10.17700/jai.2016.7.2.290
• Markus Stocker (2015). Situation Awareness in Environmental Monitoring. Doctoral Dissertation (PhD). Publications of the University of Eastern Finland. Dissertations in Forestry and Natural Sciences No 192, University of Eastern Finland. ISBN: 978-952-61-1907-6. http://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-61-1908-3

Development

Clone Gitlab repository

$ git clone https://gitlab.nibio.no/VIPS/models/java/Model_FINNCEREAL.git
$ cd Model_FINNCEREAL